Showing posts with label Economic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic. Show all posts

Finance Tips


1. We must have Monthly Budget

- We need to analyze our expenses to find out planned and unplanned expenses


2. We shall have Emergency Fund (9x to 12x monthly expenses)

It includes: 

- Term insurance

- health insurance

- Critical illness cover

- disability cover

Does it includes

- credit cards?


3. Do not ignore inflation. 


4. Power of compounding : SIP


5. Invest in equity and equity related product

- People invest in FD, Real estate, Gold

- Rich people do not invest in FD, Real estate and gold. 

- They become rich by their own business or other's business (equity) 

1991 to 2023

CAGR 19% 

BSE sensex 999 to 65000 points

- No for F&O

- No for intra-day

- We should have Goal Based investment. Without that, we get sub optimal return

A. Child's education

B. Dream vacation

C. Retirement plan

- What create wealth

A. income

B. savings

C. investment

We buy things we don't need. with money we don't have to impress people, that we do not like. 


6. New trend in abroad: Financial freedom and retire early. 

Funding retire is different. 

- must do

- no return

- For car/home all wants to provide load. No loan for retirement. 

How long saving will last after retirement? 

0 to 30 : student and early stage career. 

30 to 60 : accumulation and save

60 to 100 : distribution

Today Rs. 60,000 monthly expense

7% inflation

325646 after 25 years. 

We can try "retirement corpus building XLS"


Bengaluru Tech Summit : Day 3 - Part 2


Next panel discussion was on "Society 5.0 : Moving towards smart society by Japan". The investment in infrastructure projects needs patience, while US investors are impatients. So Japan is better choice with its excess capital. In Bangalore, all metro project, sewage project etc infrastructure projects are funded by Japan.  Human species evolved from  hunting to agriculture to industry revolution. Japan had huge contribution during the  industry revolution with its unique quality processes/tools etc. Even today they are applicable in software/IT industry as DevOps practices. India's strength is neither manufacturing nor hardware. India strength is knowledge. Its skilled, English speaking manpower in knowledge driven industry of today's. India also has massive data for machine learning of around 1.2 billion UID. China has even more data, but under full control of government, so no use. "Bengaluru Tokyo Technology Initiative" is worth to explore. Bangalore is hub for technology, efficiency and entrepreneurship. Japan welcomes Indians. 

Dolphin tank is an interesting initiative at Bangalore. It proposes to mentor and guide the start-ups through the next stage of journey for 6 months.  Just like the dolphin who is a friend in the ocean, Dolphin guides the person through the journey in the rough sea till the person becomes independent. India had cost arbitrage earlier, now India has skill arbitrage. Large organisations depends on India for innovation. Now such organisation does not increase head count at Indian center. They effectively utilizes the startup ecosystem of India.  

Panel discussion about "Decoding industry 4.0 and digitization: from vision to reality by Germany". Today if one cannot learn, unlearn and relearn then he/she is illiterate. There will be 200 billion devices by year 2025. There are four pillars of IoT: 
1. Hardware, 
2. Extremely complex algorithms, 
3. Software = Algorithm + data. Software takes action based on them. 
4. Cyber Security. 
It requires risk taking attitude for testing and trial for IoT project. German has more corporate culture. An average German person is skillful in analog, slow and perfect in engineering. While India has startup culture, risk taking attitude, software skill etc. So both are supplementary to each other. 

The industry 4.0 revolution is happening right now. There is no time of 8 years of fundamental research. The capable heavy industry needs supports from SMEs for smart factories. Today with AR and VR, one can get feel of being in middle of dangerous machine, aviation and heavy sector. All regions of world has different lead time to manufacture IC in small quantity. China/Tiwan never accept order in small quantity. German quotes high price with long delivery time. The IoT and Industry 4.0 revolution is happening now, here in college curriculum. During QA, three challenges for startups were discussed:
1. Skillset
2. Finance 
3. Scalability
"Who is better? A German leader or Modi?" "Nelson Mandela." 

It is possible to write book / biography by "ghost writer" using NLP based software. 

Panel discussion about "Geospatial innovations in the times of disruptive changes by KSRSAC" Karnataka Geographic Information System is worth to explore. Geospatial analysis and deep learning based GeoAI are also interesting fields. Bharat Lohani explains, how his company Geokno use LiDAR technology to capture data. They cover 300 square km per day. They have developed alogrihtms, that can detect terrain even in dense forest. They can detect wild creatures in forest. they can detect water channel, very useful to divide water between two states and to help better irrigation. They can create 3d maps. The shadow analysis throughout a day, is very useful for establishing solar energy plant. One more interesting talk by Laxmi Prasad Putta from Vassar Labs. 

Panel discussion about " Emerging Technologies areas in the Indic language-technology Industry by FICCI". Vivekanand Pani talked about his company Reverie Language Technologies's product "Gopal". It is a virtual assistant that can speak many Indian languages. Thirumalai Anandanpillai mentioned that Microsfot's Azure cloud exposes we service API for speech to text for Indian languages. Vinay Chhajlani's WebDunia.com turns 19 years old company in September 2018, who survived through dot com boom. In 2014, DNS was supporting 15 different languages. In 2019, Kannada will be also added in DNS, that is called IDN (International Domain Name). In the world 20 % people knows English and in India 12 % people knows English. So IDN is needed for non-English domain name. On 1st May 2018, a legal framework for Indic language was established. Since 2014 Gmail supports IDN based e-mail addresses. 4 million users uses Hindi email address by Rajsthan Government. Today more Internet data traffic is about entertainment content. However it will change, as government will give more online services in regional languages. The emerging opportunity is driving emerging of technology. In year 2010, VCs thought that Indian language speaking customers has no money so they were reluctant to invest for such language based startups. 22 years ago, we had only 1 % of PC penetration, so no need of Hindi. In 2010, 50% of mobile penetration, so Hindi was needed. So in 2011, first mobile phone launched with Hindi supports. Today many people are first time Internet user with mobile. In 2002, the way people were behaving at Yahoo chat room, today this first time user may behave same way. 

During QA, I asked about Sanskrit, Sage Panini's Sanskrit grammar and its relevant with NLP. Everyone nominated Thirumalai Anandanpillai from Microsoft to answer the question. May be because he has nice TILAK on his forehead. He replied, that today translation happens by Neural Network. It is not rule based. Panini's grammar is relevant and useful for rule based services. 

So overall "Bengaluru Tech Summit" was worth to attend event, with many thought provoking ideas, updates about recent trends, startups and insight to upcoming futures. There was also exhibition with stalls from established companies and startups both. 

Bengaluru Tech Summit : Day 3 - Part 1


We had interesting panel discussion on the topic Innovations driving next generation enterprise

Trends

* Now, the personal computing is more affordable compare to 1960s and 1980s due to to reduction is computing cost, storage cose and emergence of open source culture. 
* In 1990s all the computers are interconnected and the Internet emerged along with new business models for finance/banking, retail e-commerce and e-mail. New enterprises also got emerged. Today we are living in digital age or mobile age. 
* The people who born around 1995, have entered as work force around 2015. Generation Z, how to influence these 2 billion people, with different set of expectations.
* IoT
* Emergence of rural area. Now rural people also have access to information. 
* Now people feel pride to work at startups. 
* A new startup can be started just using WhatsApp groups. 
* Supportive governments and Law. Few examples of few funny laws, that exist even today. Laws are reaction to 150 years of industrial revolution. The government should not stop the growth. So Karnatak is first state in India with regulatory sandbox, where you are allowed to break (only state) law for duration ranges from 3 months to 2 years, powered by Karnataka Innovation Authority. More can be achieve on startup front with de-regularization like allowing crypto currency. 
* All the new innovations are becoming necessities. 
* Big giant companies like IBM are supporting startups by finance, by connecting them to large customer base, scaling up. They cannot continue with their own R&D center so they come to startups. Block chain based virtual idea market may emerged in next few months. 
* Online transactions will ultimately eliminate the need for banks. 
* Education: 500 Mbps bandwidth at each home, will eliminate universities. all students will study online. Then even 6th standard students will talk about Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, IoT, Block Chain etc. 
* The rule based and law based audit will change. Already after GST and demonetization the B.Com degree has more value compare to BBA or BBM. Now working people need to play different roles to remain in job market. Innovations at large enterprises are reducing jobs. On the other hand, same innovation increases the jobs at startups. 

The factors that drives innovations are changed based on above trends. The generation z is consumer as well as is at startups, so disruption is bound to happen. Now all enterprise needs innovation to survive or to make more profit in areas of their products, service and/or process. 

Discovery v/s Invention v/s Innovation

We know discovery is about something that already exists. Invention is one step further, by combining multiple few discoveries. Innovation goes even further by combining multiple inventions and build a use case to satisfy needs. The startups are all about building faster, better, cheaper solutions with help of inventions. Today major innovations are around (1) Artificial Intelligence, (2) data science and (3) block chain. Again startups need to focus on usage rather than the technology. 90% of startups fail due to lecuna about how to take it forward. All entrepreneurs cannot scale up their venture. Startups are risky, but design driven approach, reduces the risk. 

It is not important, what you study (in college/school to get your degree). The important aspect is what you continue to study. Today everyone should know, how to learn new topics, unlearn old topics and re-learn as per emerging trends. 


Bengaluru Tech Summit : Day 1


Damiel Manuel talked about Cyber Security. In this world, millions and billions of people are active on various social media like Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, YouTube, LinkedIn etc. It rises "deep fake" video threat. The video footage that appears to be real but is produced by technology. Now, we can no longer believe our eyes. NIST is a cyber security framework. Link 1 and Link 2 Cyber security is also a layered architecture. Hardware and network security is at physical layer. Application/software security at logical layer. Data security includes protection of personal information, location, accessibility, integrity of data etc. Social aspects covers people, culture and processes. it needs more attention. Cyber security topic now moves to Cyber resilience 

Interesting panel discussions about AI/ML. 

Ajay Sharma : Machine used to crunch numbers and humans make decision. Now machines are capable of doing both. Use cases (1) use Intel Mobileye to prevent, predict accident zones. (2) CheXNeXt is deep learning for chest radiograph diagnosis. Discussion about Niti Ayog #AIforAll ICTAI (International Center for Transformative AI) etc. 

Raj Cherubal: Smart City solutions :  (1) Parking management system (2) public bicycle sharing (3) restoration of water bodies (ponds) (4) solar panel on government buildings (5) water meter (6) smart class (7) disaster management system etc. IUDX (Indian Urben Data Exchange) Link  Whitepaper Link

Aksah Ravi (gnani) talked about NLP based voice assistant products that supports Hindi, Kannada etc. 

Out of all AI/ML projects hardly 13 to 14 % projects are successful and only 8% of customer are happy. Some projects need their ML model to be updated every week, even every day. AI/ML business case is all about identifying and satisfying unmet and unmentioned need. Few challenges (1) AI/ML implementation needs cultural change, where man and machine both work together. (2) upskill of existing staff (3) Data is fuel for AI. More time goes to find out which data to use rather than building AI/ML model. Noise in data can cause bias. The chatbot may learn offensive language over time. (4) explain-ability of AI/ML outcome. (5) Robust governance is also important. At present, chatbots are becoming popular. Long way to go. Information architecture (IA) is must for AI/ML projects. IA is the structural design of shared information environments.

Queryplex and federation are effective tools from IBM to connect multiple data sources. AI OpenScale is another tool from IBM

Ashok Ayengar talked about shopx - buy and sale platform. 

Last 25 years of history big enterprise adopted new technologies like ERP and small stratup companies built eco-system around it. Many fortune 500 companies have huge legacy in range of 20 to 100 years. They need machine learning even on end-of-life servers. 

The collaboration at Bangalore is not seen even in developed country. Here we have hackathon, open source contribution, discussion at physical meetup etc. It is really proud to be in Bangalore. 

The day 1 ended with thought leaders conclave on "TechScape 2035"

The following trends are emerged. 

1. Digitalization
2. Rapid Urbanization
3. Customer does not want product, but wants solution
4. so more and more collaborations

The growth of Internet was not predicated. 

1. Growth with many IoT devices
2. Growth for amusement e.g. Netflix
3. Many networks E.g. Car has many networks

During 90s, when Internet based innovative services and business was planned, no one predicated that everyone (4 billion people) will have smart phone. Now cost of computing come down. Technology is democratized. This growth will be accelerated further, as everything (e.g. speaker, light etc.) will have compute power, connectivity, intelligent (AI/ML). The enormous data is generated by our wearable. Evolution will happen in laboratory and new human being will be created. Excitement with fear.  

Now the smart software makes diagnosis smarter than doctor. In next 5 to 10 years, it will be mandatory to take second opinion from machines. People will get incentive for not being sick by health insurance and hospitals. The Indian doctors and nurses are best in the world. This is a license driven industry. 

Now in automobile people need : 0 emission, 0 downtime, 0 accident, and first solution is electric car. Electricity is alternate fuel. The omnipresent 3D printing will eliminate need to keep inventory of spare parts of cars. The digitization, GST have improved logistics a lot. We need more efficiency steps like: spare trailers will just replace the loaded one to save time. 

All these trends will empower the bottom of pyramid, surprisingly.  

In future, there is no concept of firm. All companies are becoming platform. Apple started as platform for iOS apps. People starts company just on WhatsApp group. Now we will see rapid consolidation of firms. So monopoly will be back. 

The present generation is Digital Native and generation Z Their working style is completely different. 

Semiconductor Industry 2015




Rank Company % Share USD B Up/Down Location
10 STMicroelectronics 2 6.8 -7.8 Geneva, Switzerland
9 Infineon Technologies 2 6.8 19.6 Germany
8 Broadcom 2.5 8.3 Irvine, Calif
7 Toshiba 2.7 9.1 -14.1 Japan
6 Texas Intruments 3.4 11.5 0 Dallas
5 Micron Technology 4.1 13.8 -15.1
4 Qualcomm 4.8 16 -16.7 San Diego
5 SK Hynix 4.9 16.3 2.4 S Korea
6 Samsung 11.3 37.8 9 S Korea
1 Intel 15.4 51.7 -1.2 Santa Clara, Calif
0 Misc 46.9 161.9
100 340




Ref: http://www.crn.com/slide-shows/components-peripherals/300080346/gartner-10-semiconductor-vendors-with-the-most-market-share-in-2015.htm

Made in India


This is a kind of filler article. To keep the blog continue. This is an event report of a book release named "Made in India."  in April 2005. Enjoy MAADI !!

What will come to your mind, when you hear “Made in India ”? A voice of Alisha Chinoy’s “Made in India ……” from her popular musical album! Right?
 
But here I am talking about a symposium on emerging Indian competitiveness. Mr. Subir Roy has written an interesting book “Made in India – A Story of Emerging Competitiveness” I attended its book opening ceremony with my friend on pleasant Saturday evening 9th April 2005 at CrossWord, Bangalore . Interested? Then keep on reading.
 
Let me first introduced the distinguished member of the panel. They were representatives of all major sectors.
 
  • Mr. G. Gurucharn - IAS officer from policy making.
  • Mr. Subroto Bagchi from MindTree and Mr. Nadan Nilekani from Infosys – IT sector. Mr Prakash Gurbaxani, from Transworks – ITES sector. 
  • Mr. Harish Bijoor from Harish Bijoor Consultants – Service sector.
  • Mr. Ravi Uppal from ABB India – manufacturing sector and
  • off course, the author Mr. Subir Roy. :)
 
The discussion was really interesting. All these members vocally and dynamically presented their view about India and its competitiveness. Subir Roy was taking notes, through out the discussion.
 
Nadan Nilekani emphasized on human capital. “All CEOs are quality conscious and very confident for global competitiveness…” He also mentioned importance of VAT (Value Added Tax).
 
Prakas Gurbaxani made a short speech. He mainly emphasized opportunity in food processing and garment export. He reminded that our Bangalore is also important for garment exports.
 
Ravi Uppal mentioned that we are forgetting importance of secondary sector -manufacturing while we stress too much on services.
 
G. Gurucharan IAS officer, he was a bit pessimistic. “Whenever we talk about India ’s competitiveness, we all remember only about economic reform started 15 years back in 1991. Bangalore – IT hub and other industrial areas are like islands of excellence…”  (We all know, Strategy guru Dr. C. K. Prahald introduced this word “islands of Excellence”) G. Gurucharan reminded audience about states like Bihar and Zarkhand. “Central government as well as state government both have to do so many things. Combined efforts by Industry and Government will be more effective. Here, at India , government policy makes one step forward and two steps backward. Our industries need to become first nationally competitive in the unified national market, before being globally competitive. …”
 
Subrota Bagchi informed that the author himself has nagging sense about this book may become obsolete very soon. “Till now, we have always studied India in flashback. We talked about Naheru, Gandhi, cultural heritage etc. First time, this book is written about real time. Even, the changes are so fast that real time is also not sufficient; we need book in fast forward mode …
 
“There is a major demographic shift in the whole world. We will have 4.5 to 6 billion teenagers in next 15 years in India and Pakistan together. So many unusual things will happen in business and corporate world…
 
“There was a time, when a senior executive of Sun Micro System, told me, he do not know where is India ? Sajan Jindal was reluctant to put seal of  ‘Made in India ’ on steal. Then slowly he unwillingly agreed. Today, Jindal industry is getting premium price with ‘Made in India ’ seal. The foreigners think that if Indians can write good quality software then to produce good quality steal is not a major deal for them…
 
“Suppose, without this IT booms, if I was at US, then maximum I would be a taxi driver there. Today, situation is such that, at US if any taxi driver is Indian, then people thinks that he must be a software engineer also!
 
“Maharshi Aurbindo mentioned that independent of India ’s independence, the country has its own destiny too. This book talks about this destiny.”
 
Harish Bijoor delivered a nice presentation with Power Point slides. He started his speech with Nadan’s comments to him, “Power corrupts people and Power Point corrupts everything in presentation if it does not work. :)
 
“This symposium panel members represents all major sectors like: IT, ITES, Manufacturing, Policy making. Biotech is missing. India is a brand since 1995. He always searches for Indian products at Indian stores in abroad. He mentioned some statistics. In 1970 46% contribution in GDP was from agriculture, in 2004 21% and in 2011 it will be 6%. His major concern was agriculture sector. Poor agriculture is like only one big black hole in Indian economy. As per him, we have two Indias . The Real India is 643000 villages where 70% of population stays. Other one is virtual India . Rural India is again divided in Developed India with 32 % of rural India and 43 million homes. Developing rural India has 90 million homes. If we want to increase per capita income from Rs. 480 in 2001 to Rs. 2000, then we must need to focus on agriculture…”
 
At last, he wished best of luck to the author that his book will have sales figure as good as OR better than, Alisha Chinoy’s Made in India album’s sales figure.
 
Then we had an interactive round of Question – Answer session.
 
Subir Roy replied that the primary focus of the book is Indian reader. Nadan Nilekeni shared his views about vision comes first, or vision developed as we proceed.
 
Someone asked about panel’s view on China v/s India .  Ravi Uppal describes that China do not have competitiveness in service sector. They are competitive in mass production and batch production. India is also moving for mass production. E.g. two-wheelers. India is much more competitive in software development and IT sector. China trains its people for global education and English. We have stable policy, supportive government, and disciplined people. Subroto Bagchi mentioned social aspects. In addition to IT and ITES, we need competitiveness in other sector also. Today BPO has very high turnover rate. In his days, civil engineering was at boom. So all parents were pushing their son/daughter to civil stream. Today parents have same craze for IT. Particularly in Andhra Pradesh, software engineer with H1B visa has very high value in marriage market. Nadan Nilekeni mentioned that we can apply IT for agriculture also. We developed software for supply chain optimization. Developing software is not difficult. We need a framework and competitive market. Our retails chain should demand such software. Supply chain optimization software should be pulled by market, instead of pushed by us. China is lacking in soft infrastructure. China does not have neither legal framework nor financial framework nor democracy. It is always easy to build road for India compare to build democracy for china.
 
At last one lady from the audience informed that, it is not only Alisha Chinoy. Recently, Intel also acknowledged the contribution of Indians in its progress. Patel inside and Intel Outside!!! Harish Bijoor agreed with her. He also mentioned that yes we are competitive; the issue is how to market that Patel. He explained his experiment with late Devang Mehta (NASSCOM) They purchased best cleaning broom and packed its nicely. It costs them Rs. 95 They could sale them at Rs. 1600 in US. They found broom very useful for cleaning. They also exported Gujarati BAANDHANIs.(a type of SARIs)
 
At last, Harish made an excellent summary. He compiled all the relevant points from all the speakers. Subir requested all to unwrap the book and just hold it for the benefits of photographers. We saw the books. It contains interesting cases, statically data with graphs about India . It costs Rs. 350 after special discount only for that occasion. Each copy had author’s autograph. Someone requested to Subroto for the autograph on the book. He politely denied that, only author can give autograph on the book.

A View From The Outside


For India, we have a significant annual event in February month. That is the union budget. We the Indians looked at the budgets proposal with different perspectives. A common men, house wives, the middle class salary people, opposite political party, stock broker, smoker, financial experts, reporters, tax consultants, economists all have their unique view to look at the budget. Post-liberalization, the Indian economic scenario completely changed. Now let me come to the point. No this blog is not about union budget of India. Such topics are already widely discussed over media.

This blog is one more video report. This time, I will take you to Crossword bookstore, Bangalore. A book release event by Finance Minister of India Mr. P. Chidambaram on lucky day 8th August 2008. A panel discussion and question answer with FM. Yes it is quite late video report, however it is still relevant to our Indian economic context.





The session started with introduction of all the panel members. The panel discussed many topics like liberalization, economic reform, collation government, upcoming election, India v/s China, nuclear deal, public-private partnership, environmental issues and national integrity etc.

The book is like a recipe for good economics. The book has good, very high quality, precise writing with intellectual input. It provides a framework to look at the issues. The book is trying to generate a debate and encourage everyone to reflect on idea. Everyone appreciated the clarity of thought. Yes, the reader has right to agree or disagree with the point made in the book. However the reader can not disagree to the fact that the point is made with clarity. The author was a lawer at supreme court, where one gets only 3 miniutes to present your case. If it got approved, then one can get sufficient time to argue. So for him, it is quite natural to become concise. He handled the question answer sessions very tactfully. He made sure the questioner come to the point. He replied one question about primary sector, that let people move away from agriculture sector in long run, as our land is over burden. For short term, let’s give better price to farmers. More details about the book:
http://www.vedamsbooks.com/no50565.htm


Mr. P. Chidambaram is a great believer of India, its future, its talented youth. He diplomatically promoted Congress party. He appeal the Bangaloreans (majority are IT professionals) that let’s have a vision for our India. Now you evaluate, which national party’s vision is matching with your vision about India. Then you vote for the party, not for candidate. Many people even do not cast their vote, do not give majority to any party and yet expectation from government!! He gave some numbers, about economic growth during his ruling, by mobilizing resources to make optimum investment for all sectors. However this achievement is wiped out by inflation. He agreed that yes, few more legislations and bill could have been passed and he regret that we could not achieve 2 digits (10%) economic growth. He is not proud about his achievement but yes he is happy.

Hey, I will not write everything. Have a look to the complete video report. Mrs. Chidambaram had special right to ask the last question. What she asked? What was the nice reply by Mr. P. Chidambaram? Why India had very few people who became Finance Minster in last few decades? Why government waited for loan waiver till farmers committed suicide? The book describes the outside view. Later on the author himself became Finance Minster. How much he succeed to implement his own ideas? To know the answers, you have to watch this video report.

http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=3E6320C9DD106905

Let me know your comments and see you soon with my next post.

Note: This post is not written with intention to promote any political party. It is just a video report. The text describe above is as per my own understanding of discussion at the venue, that may not be fully correct.

Media report:
http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/09/stories/2008080959120400.htm